2008 has not been overly kind to the Buckeyes, but let’s not forget that there is a wealth of compelling reasons to keep an eye on what’s occurring at the national level. Although it’s of little consolation compared to an undefeated record, there is always room for entertainment, perspective, education, and procrastination in enthralling yourself in some of the more interesting college football storylines set to unfold in the coming weeks.
With an off week to catch your breath from what has been a roller coaster first nine weeks, below is a crash course on what look for in November and beyond. If the last couple of years serve as a prognostication tool for this year, you can expect some unexpected fireworks to go off as fall heads to winter.
Intrigue Looms For The National Title
Front and center once again is what looks to be another BCS melodrama set to unfold. On paper, it doesn’t look that complicated with Alabama and Texas controlling their own destiny with State College on standby to start rioting should one of them falter.
But as we have learned when it comes to the BCS and its propensity for late season upsets, writing anyone into the title game at this point would most likely be a waste of time.
The Crowded Big 12 South
At this point in time, there are four teams in the Big 12 South who all have a chance of going to the Big 12 Championship game as well as the BCS Championship game.
Leading the pack are the Longhorns who are seventy-five percent through their gauntlet of top ten ranked teams in consecutive weeks. If the Longhorns can win in Lubbock they’ll effectively close the door on Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State from making the Big 12 title game due to head to head wins.
A Longhorns loss would put Texas Tech in strong position to leapfrog some teams in the BCS, but a tough road would remain in front of them with Oklahoma State and Oklahoma next up on the schedule.
Oklahoma is lurking at number four, but will most likely need to win the Big 12 in order to get a shot at the championship. The Sooners will need Texas to lose this weekend and hope they can beat Texas Tech and in-state rival Oklahoma State to improve their case for berth in the title game. The Sooners may play the role of last year’s Georgia of being a highly-ranked team snubbed due to not winning their conference.
Even if Texas Tech beats Texas, Oklahoma would still need some help via a complicated three-way divisional tie in the Big 12 South to get them in the conference title game.
Oklahoma State at this point is all but out, but still has a glimmer of hope in a dream scenario that at this point seems more unlikely than an 80-yard Hail Mary. Still though, with the way things have gone over the last handful of years they remain on the list but on the chopping block pending a Texas Tech loss.
The bottom line is one of these four teams will have to travel to Kansas City to take on either Kansas or Missouri with a spot in the BCS Championship game on the line. Last year Missouri saw their title shot slip away in a not so neutral location, and will likely have the opportunity to inflict a similar fate to one of their neighbors to the South.
SEC’s Quest for Three-Peat
The SEC has three teams in the running for a title game berth with Alabama, Georgia, and Florida.
In most experts’ scenarios you are likely to see Alabama take on the winner of this weekend’s Georgia vs. Florida game in the SEC Championship game. If Alabama can get to get to that game unscathed from games against LSU and Auburn, then they’ll be most assuredly be playing for a championship game berth in Atlanta.
Florida and Georgia both need a lot of help and are essentially playing an elimination game this weekend. Whoever wins will need a combination of some conference carnage in the Big 12, a Penn State loss, and some voter love to jump past USC in the rankings. They would also need to beat Alabama, a team who has seems to be all but unstoppable in big games thus far.
Auburn will get two chances to play spoiler with back-to-back games against Alabama and Georgia. Florida also may find themselves with a somewhat more dangerous game than expected when they travel to Tallahassee to take on a resurgent Florida State team.
Rose Bowl Conferences Eyeing the Prize
The team who most experts believe has the easiest path to the championship game is Penn State. With a signature win under the belt, a manageable schedule going forward, no conference championship game, and no losses, the Nittany Lions seem poised to carry the torch for the conference in a third straight championship game appearance.
USC finds themselves in a similar position as last year as they are right on the fringe of another championship game appearance. However, with no marquee games left on the docket and a strong national perception that a one-loss Big 12 or SEC conference winner would be more worthy than a one-loss USC team, it’s looking unlikely that the Trojans can eek past their peers for a spot in the title game.
Nine Remaining Games with Biggest BCS Impact
With all that being said, here are the nine games looming that could shakeup the national championship picture in the coming weeks. I am sure that a game like last year’s Pittsburgh-West Virginia game will sneak up on us again as well.
11/1
Georgia vs. Florida (Neutral site)
Texas at Texas Tech
11/8
Oklahoma State at Texas Tech
Alabama at LSU
11/22
Texas Tech at Oklahoma
11/29
Oklahoma at Oklahoma State
Florida at Florida State
12/6
Big 12 Championship Game (Kansas City)
SEC Championship Game (Atlanta)
Ranking Everything and Anything
This season has unraveled at a fast pace as we close the books on October. Hopefully the below rankings can get you up to speed as we hit the home stretch on what has been another great year in college football.
Five Biggest Surprises in no particular order
Minnesota- Last year the Gophers logged embarrassing losses to Bowling Green, Florida Atlantic, and North Dakota State on their way to an abysmal 1-11 season. You really have to give credit to Tim Brewster as the Gophers are now 7-1 with a very manageable schedule going forward.
Alabama- The natives were restless as the Crimson Tide closed out the 2007 regular season with four consecutive losses. However, Nick Saban has righted the ship and put together two of the most impressive halves of football in 2008 in their blowout wins against Georgia and Clemson.
Penn State- Many suspected the Nittany Lions would contend at the conference level, but I don’t think anybody believed they would be undefeated, averaging 41-plus points a game, with a 30-plus point margin of victory.
UNC- The Tar Heels are ranked at 6-2 and do not have a game left against a ranked opponent. Considering the Tar Heels have not had an eight-win season in more then a decade, it’s safe to say Butch Davis is steadily improving the program and his resume in Chapel Hill.
Duke- Going 4-3 is nothing to gloat about, but when your program has only four total wins in the previous four seasons, it’s a substantial step in the right direction.
Five Biggest Disappointments in no Particular Order
Michigan- There weren’t high expectations to start with, but the Wolverines have a legitimate chance of hitting double-digit losses in 2008. The ROI on Rodriguez is looking real bleak right about now.
Clemson- You automatically make this list when you start the year in the top ten, are in danger of not making a bowl, and have already fired your coach. With three straight losses and two tough road games coming up, you may be looking at the biggest underachiever in 2008.
Auburn- I wasn’t buying Auburn for one second as a top 15 team but thought they had enough talent to not sweat out bowl eligibility. At 4-4 and games remaining against Georgia and Alabama, Auburn may find their season over in under a month.
Wisconsin- At 4-4 with two games left against ranked opponents, Wisconsin is another team in danger of not being bowl eligible. While their record is alarming, blowout losses to Iowa and Penn State coupled with a flat out ugly loss to Michigan are the real eye sores on their disappointing season.
Tennessee- Another fall from grace from college football royalty. The Volunteers at 3-5 are averaging under 20 points a game and almost had to deal with the shame of losing to Northern Illinois at home.
Ranking the BCS Conferences
1) Big 12- I took some heat for it when I predicted this almost a year ago, so why I would I budge now? Yes it’s almost all offense, but regardless, the Big 12 is head and shoulders superior to any conference top to bottom.
2) SEC- Auburn and Tennessee are down, but the SEC has a great top tier of teams with a pretty talented and balanced second wave of teams that include improved South Carolina, Vanderbilt, and Ole Miss.
3) Big Ten- Michigan and Wisconsin weigh down conference perception, but the Big Ten is much improved thanks to some upward mobility from Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, and of course Penn State.
4) Pac-10- If the stars line up, the Pac-10 may find themselves with only one or two teams ranked in the top 25 come bowl season. Washington State and Washington’s dreadful seasons only amplify expert skepticism that the conference has fallen on tough times.
5) ACC- The conference with the most parity but the least amount of national contenders. Ten out of the twelve teams in the conference have two losses or less in the conference. That being said, your guess is as good as mine as to who we’ll see in Tampa for the conference championship. What you can expect is a lot of empty seats similar to last year.
6) Big East- The way last season ended there were high hopes for the Big East this year. Unfortunately, USF couldn’t live up to the billing, West Virginia stumbled out of the gate, and nobody has yet to prove they are a top 25 team let alone a contender on the national stage. At this point the Mountain West has more ranked teams than the Big East and I don’t know if it’s that big of stretch to say it’s a tossup as to who is the better conference.
Heisman Watch
A little over a year ago DeSean Jackson, Matt Ryan, Mike Hart, Dennis Dixon, and Andre Woodson looked like front-runners for the Heisman. None of them even got the invite at the end of the season.
With that being said, here is a look at who’s in and out of this year’s Heisman race.
Big Apple Bound
Colt McCoy
Sam Bradford
Graham Harrell
Tim Tebow
Knowshon Moreno
On Standby
Chase Daniel
Javon Ringer
Michael Crabtree
Jeremy Maclin
