Under the strain of the BCS, the college football fan eco-system has evolved away from a shared hobby and passion into a fragmented and bitter civil war amongst the county’s power football conferences. Intra-conference rival fan bases have seemingly put their difference aside and banded together in this war of attrition, prestige, and public opinion.
Fighting a multi-front assault, backers of the Big Ten now find themselves in a precarious and defensive position as experts predict discouraging bowl season looms for the proud conference.
It took more than a year before the powers to be could agree that the United States was experiencing a recession, yet the college football pundits were quick to label the Big Ten as a fading super power shortly after a second straight year of Big Ten team’s going 0-2 in BCS bowl games.
While the conference seems to have slipped in terms of national public perception, the question begs, what is the state of the Big Ten now and in the future? Is there legitimate cause for concern at the conference level, or can most performance deficiencies be chopped up to micro trends and circumstances?
The Case Against the Big Ten
Below are some of the most glaring and alarming talking points used to discredit the Big Ten.
- The Big Ten has not won a Rose Bowl since Bill Clinton left office.
- Minus Ohio State, the conference is 1-7 in their last eight BCS bowl games (2001-now).
- Ohio State who has won three BCS bowls, has lost their last two in addition to a high profile loss at USC.
- Both Big Ten representatives in the BCS this season (Penn State vs. USC, Ohio State vs. Texas) have been tabbed as double-digit underdogs.
- The Big Ten is only a favorite in one out of the seven bowl games this year.
- It’s been 13 years since a Big Ten quarterback was taken in the first round of the NFL draft. Kerry Collins is the conferences only first round quarterback taken over the last 19 years, which is half as many as Tulane during this span.
- Since 2003, no Big Ten team has had back-to-back years in the top ten besides the Buckeyes.
- Successors of iconic Big Ten coaches Barry Alvarez and Lloyd Carr have not met lofty expectations in addition to uncertainty over Joe Paterno’s continued tenure at Penn State.
- On the basketball front, the Big Ten has yet to win a Big Ten-ACC Challenge and has only won one NCAA championship over the last nineteen years.
The Shrinking Elite of the Big Ten
This past summer I wrote on the message boards, that the conference’s “Big Four” of Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Penn State was experiencing a period of regression mainly due to coaching turnover and unexpected program volatility.
Penn State’s resurgence served as a great PR story for the program and conference, but unfortunately the collapses of Michigan and Wisconsin greatly overshadowed the Nittany Lions’ success.
With a bleak short-term outlook for Michigan along with a massive exodus of talent departing Happy Valley and Madison after this season, 2009 could potentially be another down year for the Big Ten’s elite.
Breaking Through?
While there is some legitimate cause for concern as traditional powers deal with coaching turnover, there is a sense of optimism in the progress being made by recently hired head coaches at Michigan State, Minnesota, and Northwestern.
In their second and third years respectively, Mark Dantonio and Pat Fitzgerald are making waves with unexpected 9-3 seasons. Both head coaches will have an opportunity to further their program's reputation and notoriety as Michigan State and Northwestern both face heavily-favored bowl opponents who started the year ranked in the top five.
The head coach who may be considered biggest miracle worker is Minnesota’s head coach, Tim Brewster. Coming off of a 1-11 year that included two losses against Division I-AA schools, the Gophers rebounded with a respectable 7-5 record despite finishing the year with four straight losses. Brewster and the Gophers also will have an opportunity to show off their progression as a heavy underdog in a bowl game against a veteran Kansas team only one year removed from a one-loss Orange Bowl winning season.
All three programs lend a sense of optimism that any possible regression in conference competitiveness and prestige will be short lived. On the flip side, maintaining this type of upward mobility momentum is an arduous challenge that has stifled the majority of middle-tier head coaches.
Dantonio and Fitzgerald also have heard their names whispered as possible replacements for coaching vacancies outside the conference. Any turnover to these programs would most likely stagnate or potentially reverse program momentum, thus it will be imperative that all three coaches be retained to continue their work in the Big Ten.
Question Marks Looming for the I’s
Half a decade ago pundits crowned Kirk Ferentz and Iowa as the Big Ten’s up-and-coming program. Although the Hawkeyes had a surprisingly strong 2008, it came on the heels of two straight lackluster six-win seasons. With rumblings of a coaching change on the horizon, Iowa broke through with an eight-win season, but still seem to be far away from meeting the lofty expectations bestowed on them during the Banks and Tate eras.
A year ago, Illinois was celebrating a berth in the Rose Bowl as well as a breakthrough win against the Buckeyes. Flash forward a year later, where the Illini's Big Ten reality show has been cut short due to Illinois’ inability to qualify for a bowl game. Similar to Iowa, Illinois seems to have hit a wall in sustaining a top 25 program. With Zook only having one winning season in his first four year’s it's plausible that another disappointing year could lead to a coaching change in Champaign regardless of how well he is recruiting.
Indiana and in state rival Purdue also find their programs stymied by inconsistency, coaching turnover, and difficult in state recruiting conditions. The Hoosiers followed up their best year in decades with a return to the cellar in conference standings.
The Boilermakers, a perennial middle-tier Big Ten program, may soon be joining the Hoosiers at the bottom with head coach Joe Tiller leaving the program along with a large contingency of offensive starters.
With inconsistency, coaching instability, and difficult recruiting conditions plaguing all four programs, the Big Ten’s typically stable middle-tier finds itself being reshuffled and redefined.
Inflexible Tradition?
One of the conference’s most attractive features is its historic tradition and commitment to it. However, in a day and age, where other conferences are bending over backwards to accommodate the networks and maximize exposure, one wonders if we’re sacrificing publicity and fan outreach by putting such a premium on maintaining tradition.
The Big Ten does not have a conference championship game and most fans are likely comfortable with that. While the merit of these games is up for debate, the negative effects of not playing and becoming an afterthought on the national scene in the final two weeks of the season is not.
The additional two-week layoff was a popular scapegoat for bowl losses the last two years, but more alarming is the conference’s disappearance on the national stage as all other major conferences play some of their biggest games of the season after the Big Ten’s has wrapped up.
This is just one of the many areas where the conference has chosen to stick to tradition as the conference as a whole has put a premium on avoiding frills and gimmicks like night games, nationally televised non-Saturday games, third jerseys, and neutral field games.
The mere thought of the Buckeyes running out of the tunnel in gray jerseys on a Thursday Night at Lucas Oil Stadium may give some fans a stroke. Despite this commitment to tradition, the Big Ten should seriously consider looking at various options that could enhance the viewership and the fan experience in the years to come.
Is the Big Ten a Recession?
With all that being said, the question begs is the conference legitimately experiencing a recession?
Less then two years removed from having three teams finish in the top ten (Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin), it's hard to confidently confirm that indeed the conference as a whole has slipped.
Unfortunately, given a remarkably difficult bowl slate along with expected growing pains for a handful of teams in 2009, it seems likely that the Big Ten has indeed fallen on tough times.
What should be noted that the Big Ten is not alone as the Pac 10, ACC, and Big East have also seemed to stagnate or regress in comparison to peers like the SEC and Big 12.
The silver lining for the conference though may lie in the fact that the conference returns an extensive amount of experience at quarterback next year with ten of the eleven programs bringing back a QB with starting experience. This in addition a majority of programs entering make or break third or fourth year’s under their current head coach will likely serve as catalyst for a much improved 2009 season.
However, if the Big Ten is able to log some upsets during bowl season, including one of the BCS games, the conference will likely avoid another pummeling at the hands of the national media. Being able to win some unexpected games against SEC, Pac 10, Big 12, and ACC teams could serve as a “turning the corner” mechanism for the conference as a whole.
Regardless that the chances of a strong bowl season are believed to be low, this upcoming bowl season will serve as a great barometer into the well-being and short term outlook of the Big Ten. Even if the Big Ten is unable to improve over the next couple of years, Ohio State’s outlook for success during this timeframe is very optimistic with the best back to back recruiting hauls in decades.
