Welcome to one of our usual game day features, Ten Pressing Questions.
Today, we’ll examine the Ten Pressing Questions as No. 10 Ohio State takes on No. 3 Texas in the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, Ariz. (8:20 p.m., EST; FOX).
Steve Helwagen will answer the Ten Pressing Questions in his Sunday Morning Quarterback column. Here we go:
* 1. Will Ohio State get consistent pressure on Texas quarterback Colt McCoy? – McCoy does a great job of getting the ball out of his hands quickly and is leading the nation with a completion percentage of 77.6. He has 3,445 passing yards, 32 touchdowns and seven interceptions (ranks third in the nation in passing efficiency with a rating of 179.2). McCoy loves to pick defenses apart with the short and intermediate passing game and not very many teams have been able to get consistent pressure on him this season. If McCoy is able to sit in the pocket and be comfortable, the Longhorns are going to be extremely hard to beat tonight. However, if the Buckeyes are able to get to McCoy often and hit him, it could force the star QB into mistakes.
Ohio State could best be described as an “average” pass-rushing defense. The Buckeyes rank No. 53 in the nation with 2 sacks per game (24 total). Senior middle linebacker James Laurinaitis and sophomore defensive end Thaddeus Gibson are tied for the team lead with four sacks apiece. One of the Buckeyes’ brightest young edge rushers – true freshman Nathan Williams – will sit out at least the first quarter due to a shoplifting arrest in December. And defensive coordinator Jim Heacock wouldn’t commit to saying that Williams would definitely play in the game.
* 2. Can Beanie Wells have a big game on the ground for Ohio State? – It what will likely be his final appearance in a Buckeye uniform, junior tailback Chris “Beanie” Wells would like nothing more than to go out in style with a big game on a big stage. And that might be what it will take for heavy underdog OSU to pull the upset over Texas (the Longhorns are favored by 8).
It’s been a disappointing season for Wells due to injuries, but he’s still flashed the brilliance from time to time that has him projected as a top 15 NFL draft pick in April. Wells closed out the regular season with 1,091 rushing yards (5.7 yards per carry) and eight touchdowns. However, when you compare those numbers to those of his sophomore campaign in 2007 when he racked up 1,609 rushing yards (5.9 yards per carry) and 15 touchdowns, it’s easy to see why Wells expected a lot more from himself this year. However, he suffered an injury to his right foot/big toe in the season opener against Youngstown State which forced him to miss three games, including the trip to USC. Just when he was starting to feel close to 100 percent again, he pulled a hamstring while hurdling a defender at Illinois. Wells says he feels extremely healthy going into the Texas game and that is music to the ears of OSU fans. Wells is averaging 121.2 yards per game this season.
Texas is ranked No. 2 in the country in rushing defense (73.6 yards per game) but those numbers are likely skewed due to the Longhorns playing in the pass-happy Big 12 South. Even UT head coach Mack Brown said not to look too much into those statistics since the Longhorns didn’t really face a good running team all season. Texas will likely stack the box trying to stop the ground game while forcing OSU to beat them in the air.
Ohio State counters with the No. 26 rushing offense in the nation (191.6 yards per game). Wells will obviously be the bell cow tonight, but when he needs a rest, OSU has a solid backup in redshirt freshman Boom Herron. He closed out the regular season with 409 rushing yards (4.9 yards per carry) and five touchdowns.
* 3. Which team is more motivated? – There is no question Ohio State desperately wants to win this game. Its senior class has accomplished things that former groups could only dream of, such as winning four Big Ten championships (two outright and two shared) and going 4-0 against Michigan. However, if they lose to Texas – especially if they are blown out – the senior players might best be remembered for losing three straight BCS bowl games in convincing fashion. That wouldn’t be fair, but it would be reality. Therefore, I look for a very enthusiastic and intense Ohio State team to take the field at University of Phoenix Stadium.
Looking at Texas, it really could go either way. The Longhorns were obviously extremely disappointed that they didn’t get a chance to play for the national championship. They’ve been asked about it numerous times and while they are trying to say all the right things, there is no question being selected for the Fiesta Bowl was a letdown. For that reason, Ohio State could have the mental edge. Bowl games often come down to which team wants it more.
However, the flip side of that is that Texas is going to want to prove to the nation that it should be playing for all the marbles this Thursday and not rival Oklahoma. The Longhorns beat the Sooners by 10 points on a neutral field, but their loss to Texas Tech proved to be too much to overcome in terms of the computer rankings. So, is Texas more motivated than Ohio State to win this game? I have a hard time believing that. However, the Buckeyes will need more than motivation to win this one. But being the hungrier team certainly doesn’t hurt the cause.
* 4. Will Ohio State rely on Terrelle Pryor to throw 15 or more passes? – For a quarterback that isn’t supposed to be a good passer, Pryor had a very solid season in the air for a true freshman. He finished the regular season ranked No. 1 in the Big Ten in passing efficiency with a rating of 152.1. (Pryor would rank 16th in the country, but doesn’t have enough attempts to qualify for the national rankings. However, he did finish with enough attempts in conference play to qualify for the Big Ten rankings.) Pryor closed out the regular season with 1,245 passing yards (62.5 completion percentage) with 12 touchdowns and four interceptions. Pryor has averaged 15 passing attempts per game in his nine starts.
It’s difficult to imagine Ohio State coming out and chucking the ball all over the field. That is just not the Buckeyes’ style – especially this season – and could lead to disaster. However, there is no question they will need to throw the ball effectively to win this game. If Pryor throws over 15 passes and is productive with them, that would be huge for Ohio State. If the Buckeyes become a one-dimensional team and allow Texas to sell out against the run, it’s going to be a long night for the team from Columbus. But if Pryor can hit a couple big passing plays and consistently move the chains when he does put it in the air, it will really open up the running game and allow OSU to control the clock against a Texas defense that is likely better than the numbers indicate. The Longhorns are ranked 49th in the country in total defense, allowing 339.9 yards per game. They rank just 108th in the country against the pass (266.3 yards per game). However, those numbers are misleading due to the conference they play in, just like their defensive rushing numbers are.
* 5. Can Ohio State’s offensive line hold up against Texas’ defensive line and pass rush? – The Longhorns are ranked No. 1 in the country in sacks with 44 (3.67 per game) and that doesn’t bode well for an OSU offensive line that has struggled this season, especially in pass protection. Left tackle Alex Boone was a first-team All-Big Ten selection, but many still consider his season to be a disappointment. Sophomore Bryant Browning is playing out of position at right tackle due to the lack of quality depth up front. Browning will likely be a good guard later in his career, but he’s struggled on the outside this season.
Texas has one of the best defensive ends in the country in senior Brian Orakpo. He is sixth in the nation in sacks per game with 0.95 (10 sacks in 11 games) and is projected as a first-round NFL draft pick. The Longhorns also have a talented defensive tackle in senior Roy Miller. Ohio State’s interior linemen like center Michael Brewster and guards Ben Person and Steve Rehring are going to have their hands full with him.
* 6. Who will win the matchup of Ohio State’s defensive backs against Texas’ wide receivers? – The Buckeyes have one of the best secondaries in the nation, led by Thorpe-award winning cornerback Malcolm Jenkins. The other corner spot is shared by sophomore Chimdi Chekwa and junior Donald Washington. Ohio State also has a very talented safety in junior Kurt Coleman. Classmate Anderson Russell has struggled at times this year and he rounds out the starters for OSU. The other key member of the defensive backfield is sophomore safety Jermale Hines. He missed the last two games of the regular season with an injury, but head coach Jim Tressel says he is 100 percent healthy for tonight’s game. Look for the versatile and hard-hitting Hines to play a lot.
Texas counters with a very solid WR corps led by senior starters Jordan Shipley and Quan Cosby. Shipley has 79 receptions for 982 yards (12.4 yards per catch) and 11 touchdowns. Cosby has 78 receptions for 952 yards (12.2) and eight touchdowns.
It will be a matchup of veteran, talented groups and whoever wins that battle could go a long way in determining the outcome of the game.
* 7. Which team will win the special teams battle? – A game like this could come down to special teams. Turnovers will also be a big factor, but often that comes down to luck. Special teams are based on skill and while both teams have been solid overall this season, Texas might have a slight edge looking at the numbers.
The Longhorns are ranked third in the nation in net punting (40.2 net yards per punt) and Ohio State is ranked 12th (37.8). Texas sophomore punter John Gold is averaging 45 yards per punt, but doesn’t have enough attempts to qualify for the national rankings (he has 21 attempts). Texas has also used freshman Justin Tucker who averages 44.3 yards in nine attempts. Ohio State senior A.J. Trapasso is averaging 41.3 yards per punt which ranks 38th in the nation (54 attempts). The fact that Texas only has 36 punts all season tells you a lot about their offensive production (Trevor Gerland has three punting attempts and McCoy has two).
Texas junior kicker Hunter Lawrence is 9-of-11 on field goals, with a long of 46 yards. Ohio State uses a two-kicker system with senior Ryan Pretorius (14-of-18 on field goals with a long of 50) taking the shorter ones and junior Aaron Pettrey (5-for-5 with a long of 54) taking the longer ones. Both teams have good kickoff specialists with Tucker (23 touchbacks in 89 attempts) for Texas and Pettrey (12 touchbacks in 68 attempts) for Ohio State.
Texas has a big advantage in the kickoff return game. The Longhorns rank 26th in the nation in kickoff returns (23.2 yards per return) while the Buckeyes are slumming all the way down at 110th (18.9). Shipley (28.4 yards per return with one touchdown) and Cosby (21.2 yards per return) handle those duties for Texas. Ohio State’s top kick returner is true freshman Lamaar Thomas at 22.1 yards per return.
Ohio State has the better numbers in the punt return game as the Buckeyes are ranked 14th in the country, averaging 12.9 yards per return. Texas is ranked 72nd at 8.2 yards per return). Ohio State junior Ray Small is averaging 15.1 yards per return which ranks eighth in the nation. Shipley (10.7 yards per return and one touchdown) and Cosby (6.3 yards per return) once again handle those responsibilities for Texas.
* 8. What impact will the crowd have? – Ohio State is used to having a pseudo home field advantage when they play bowl games in the Phoenix area. But that will certainly not be the case this evening. A rough estimate is that it will be 70/30 in favor of Texas fans. Of course, having more fans in the stands didn’t help the Buckeyes two years ago against Florida, but it will be interesting to see if the crowd plays any role in this game.
* 9. What new wrinkles will Ohio State unveil offensively and defensively? – The Buckeyes are not going to deviate too far from who they are, but they will need to be creative both offensively and defensively to win this game. A vanilla approach won’t cut it against a team as good as Texas. I look for OSU to have a few new things up its sleeve both offensively and defensively. It’s hard to say what they will be without seeing practice, but there is no doubt there will be some new looks. Defensively, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Buckeyes use more zone blitzes where defensive ends and linebackers can either rush or drop back into coverage.
* 10. Can Ohio State get a jumpstart on the 2009 season with an impressive showing against Texas? – A win wouldn’t just be big for the departing senior class, it would be important for the confidence of the returning players as well. A bowl victory – especially one in a BCS game – could really catapult the Buckeyes into next season. Troy Smith started his Heisman campaign in the Fiesta Bowl against Notre Dame to close out the 2005 season and a big performance from Pryor could really take his confidence to another level heading into his sophomore year. And the same goes for any returning player that is able to contribute in a big game like this. If the Buckeyes are able to win this game, they would enter the 2009 season near the top of the rankings most likely. But more importantly, they would have the monkey off their back after three straight embarrassing losses on the big stage.
